Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.37 – 74.5

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

94 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 7.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 62.7 ±43.2

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 19.7Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 20.5Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 52.17Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 71.9 ±42.9

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.55Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 31.98Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 26.97Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5876, 11130, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.4 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 11130, 9993

Auto

13.3 15%

Teleop

52.7 59%

Endgame

23.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9996, 9146, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9996, 9146, 10552

Auto

20.3 28%

Teleop

28.7 40%

Endgame

23.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score92.4pts

Blue projected score74.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.9
Score range: 57–110
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 100.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

62.7Season APEX71.9

13.3Auto20.3

52.7Teleop28.7

23.1Endgame23.4

46Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	37
teleop	58	16
endgame	10	3
foul	0	5
total	94	61

Result

Final score

94 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 7.6 pts