Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.53 – 135.6

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.5 ±42.2

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.41Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 119.57Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 74.55Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.6 ±18.1

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 108.78Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 8.71Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 18.11Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 5584, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 5584, 6996

Auto

44.4 22%

Teleop

110.6 55%

Endgame

46.7 23%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10002, 9189, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.6 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9189, 5648

Auto

22.3 18%

Teleop

77.8 62%

Endgame

26.2 21%

Strengths

· 10002 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score207.5pts

Blue projected score135.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.9
Score range: 118–226
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 98.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.5Season APEX237.6

44.4Auto22.3

110.6Teleop77.8

46.7Endgame26.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	27
teleop	104	98
endgame	57	56
foul	0	15
total	229	196

Result

Final score

229 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 pts