Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.12 – 100.75

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 74.7 ±43.2

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 22.2Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 98.55Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 3.37Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 62.7 ±43.2

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 22.71Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 22.98Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 55.06Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9147, 9986, 10437

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.1 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9147, 9986, 10437

Auto

22.1 18%

Teleop

58.4 49%

Endgame

39.4 33%

Strengths

· 9986 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5876, 11130, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 11130, 9993

Auto

12.4 13%

Teleop

58.6 60%

Endgame

26.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score124.1pts

Blue projected score100.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: 83–142
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 98.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

74.7Season APEX62.7

22.1Auto12.4

58.4Teleop58.6

39.4Endgame26

23Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	22
teleop	81	25
endgame	17	9
foul	0	0
total	129	56

Result

Final score

129 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 pts