Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.96 – 48.1

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 71.9 ±42.9

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.07Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 33.03Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 27.86Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.9Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.52Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.68Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9996, 9146, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9996, 9146, 10552

Auto

17.9 24%

Teleop

31.3 42%

Endgame

25.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9992, 9980, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 9980, 9995

Auto

12.6 28%

Teleop

16.6 37%

Endgame

15.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score77pts

Blue projected score48.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.9
Score range: 30–95
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 99.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

71.9Season APEX0

17.9Auto12.6

31.3Teleop16.6

25.4Endgame15.6

8Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	16
teleop	14	10
endgame	14	14
foul	0	0
total	64	40

Result

Final score

64 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 pts