Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.21 – 48.57

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.6 ±18.1

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 109.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 8.52Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 17.64Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 28.06Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.59Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.92Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10002, 9189, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9189, 5648

Auto

22.5 18%

Teleop

78.9 64%

Endgame

22.5 18%

Strengths

· 10002 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9992, 9980, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 9980, 9995

Auto

11.7 26%

Teleop

17.7 40%

Endgame

15.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score135.2pts

Blue projected score48.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.6
Score range: 31–153
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 101.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.6Season APEX0

22.5Auto11.7

78.9Teleop17.7

22.5Endgame15.3

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	16
teleop	71	10
endgame	34	17
foul	0	0
total	130	43

Result

Final score

130 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 pts