Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.77 – 72.94

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.5 ±42.2

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.11Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 117.88Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 72.78Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 71.9 ±42.9

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.94Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 31.7Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 26.3Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 5584, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.8 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 5584, 6996

Auto

40.8 21%

Teleop

109.9 56%

Endgame

44.2 23%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9996, 9146, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.9 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9996, 9146, 10552

Auto

17.2 23%

Teleop

33.1 45%

Endgame

24.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score201.8pts

Blue projected score72.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.8
Score range: 55–220
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 100.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.5Season APEX71.9

40.8Auto17.2

109.9Teleop33.1

44.2Endgame24

1Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	22
teleop	104	19
endgame	53	31
foul	0	15
total	220	87

Result

Final score

220 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts