Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.83 – 51.51

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 62.7 ±43.2

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 22.13Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 22.09Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 53.61Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.3 ±43.5

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 4.15Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 21.12Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9976Off-Season Demo Team 9976

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.24Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5876, 11130, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 11130, 9993

Auto

14.8 16%

Teleop

59.7 64%

Endgame

19.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7128, 7583, 9976

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.5 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7128, 7583, 9976

Auto

12.7 26%

Teleop

21.8 45%

Endgame

14.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.65 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score97.8pts

Blue projected score51.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.3
Score range: 34–116
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 100.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

62.7Season APEX115.3

14.8Auto12.7

59.7Teleop21.8

19Endgame14.2

37Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	17
teleop	49	43
endgame	56	9
foul	0	0
total	112	69

Result

Final score

112 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts