Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.48 – 137.43

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.5 ±42.2

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.43Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 116.13Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 70.92Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.6 ±18.1

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 108.84Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 9.21Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 19.38Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 5584, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.5 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 5584, 6996

Auto

45.4 24%

Teleop

101.4 53%

Endgame

45.3 24%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10002, 9189, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9189, 5648

Auto

26.3 20%

Teleop

74.1 57%

Endgame

29.1 22%

Strengths

· 10002 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.73 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score196.5pts

Blue projected score137.4pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59
Score range: 119–214
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 100.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.5Season APEX237.6

45.4Auto26.3

101.4Teleop74.1

45.3Endgame29.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	19
teleop	60	58
endgame	57	33
foul	15	15
total	166	125

Result

Final score

166 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts