Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.62 – 93.57

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.6 ±18.1

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 109.1Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 9.18Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 19.34Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 62.7 ±43.2

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 20.39Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 20.26Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 52.92Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10002, 9189, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.6 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9189, 5648

Auto

25.1 20%

Teleop

75.8 59%

Endgame

27.7 22%

Strengths

· 10002 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5876, 11130, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 11130, 9993

Auto

14.5 16%

Teleop

54.8 60%

Endgame

21.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score137.6pts

Blue projected score93.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.1
Score range: 76–156
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 100.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.6Season APEX62.7

25.1Auto14.5

75.8Teleop54.8

27.7Endgame21.3

0Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	15
teleop	60	22
endgame	38	8
foul	0	0
total	133	45

Result

Final score

133 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts