Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.77 – 210.9

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 92.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 32.1 ±57.6

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 22.43Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 98.72Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.62Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.5 ±42.2

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.6Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 120.72Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 75.58Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9147, 9986, 9998

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9147, 9986, 9998

Auto

16.5 14%

Teleop

67.9 57%

Endgame

34.0 29%

Strengths

· 9986 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9991, 5584, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.9 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 5584, 6996

Auto

47.4 23%

Teleop

109.8 53%

Endgame

48.7 24%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score122.8pts

Blue projected score210.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.1
Score range: 105–229
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 99.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

32.1Season APEX278.5

16.5Auto47.4

67.9Teleop109.8

34Endgame48.7

8Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	34
teleop	71	44
endgame	87	25
foul	0	0
total	200	103

Result

Final score

200 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 92.6 pts