Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.49 – 45.47

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.6 ±18.1

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 112.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 11.94Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 21.42Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.3 ±43.5

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 2.48Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 19.22Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9976Off-Season Demo Team 9976

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.77Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10002, 9189, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9189, 5648

Auto

22.5 17%

Teleop

81.3 60%

Endgame

31.4 23%

Strengths

· 10002 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7128, 7583, 9976

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.5 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7128, 7583, 9976

Auto

9.4 22%

Teleop

23.1 53%

Endgame

10.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score145.5pts

Blue projected score45.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100
Score range: 27–163
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 100.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.6Season APEX115.3

22.5Auto9.4

81.3Teleop23.1

31.4Endgame10.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	15
teleop	39	24
endgame	12	5
foul	0	0
total	95	44

Result

Final score

95 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts