Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.82 – 75.81

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

113 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 30.1 ±43.5

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX -5.65Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 3.3Event APEX 6.94Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 74.9 ±57.1

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.9Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 8.03Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 48.71Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11130, 9189, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

58 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11130, 9189, 9986

Auto

18.5 35%

Teleop

29.8 56%

Endgame

5.2 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9996, 9980, 10002

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9996, 9980, 10002

Auto

14.7 23%

Teleop

25.4 40%

Endgame

23.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score58pts

Blue projected score64.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4
Score range: 57–91
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 82.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

30.1Season APEX74.9

18.5Auto14.7

29.8Teleop25.4

5.2Endgame23.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	5
teleop	48	66
endgame	12	34
foul	30	0
total	113	105

Result

Final score

113 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable