Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.96 – 57.81

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 36.1 ±43.2

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -11.38Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.83Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 48.12Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 16.4 ±43.2

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -18.83Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 9.4Event APEX 35.1Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX -1.56Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9146, 9993, 9147

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9146, 9993, 9147

Auto

6.2 12%

Teleop

16.8 34%

Endgame

26.7 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9998, 5876, 7128

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.7 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9998, 5876, 7128

Auto

16.4 95%

Teleop

10.8 62%

Endgame

-9.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.64 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score57.6pts

Blue projected score14.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.1
Score range: 43–92
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 81.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

36.1Season APEX16.4

6.2Auto16.4

16.8Teleop10.8

26.7Endgame-9.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	8
teleop	88	21
endgame	43	13
foul	0	0
total	144	42

Result

Final score

144 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable