Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

64.93 – 56.18

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±18.5

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX -14.12Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 157.8Event APEX 38.96Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 28.2Event APEX 5.84Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 21.3 ±43.5

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 3.3Event APEX 0.34Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX -3.01Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9976Off-Season Demo Team 9976

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.21Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7583, 5584, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.7 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7583, 5584, 10552

Auto

16.7 52%

Teleop

16.7 52%

Endgame

-1.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9189, 10437, 9976

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.5 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9189, 10437, 9976

Auto

7.8 100%

Teleop

1.7 49%

Endgame

-6.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score30.7pts

Blue projected score6.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 42–79
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 79.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX21.3

16.7Auto7.8

16.7Teleop1.7

-1.2Endgame-6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	11
teleop	94	9
endgame	42	0
foul	0	0
total	172	20

Result

Final score

172 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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