Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.12 – 170.02

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 16.8 ±57.6

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 107.52Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 16.8Event APEX 14.92Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9976Off-Season Demo Team 9976

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.73Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.2 ±42.7

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.17Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 157.8Event APEX 110.48Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 9.4Event APEX 23.97Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9986, 5648, 9976

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.2 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9986, 5648, 9976

Auto

19.0 14%

Teleop

73.0 55%

Endgame

40.4 31%

Strengths

· 9986 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9993, 5584, 5876

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 5584, 5876

Auto

35.6 19%

Teleop

111.1 59%

Endgame

41.4 22%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score146.2pts

Blue projected score190.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.9
Score range: 110–188
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 101.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

16.8Season APEX167.2

19Auto35.6

73Teleop111.1

40.4Endgame41.4

14Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	6
teleop	132	124
endgame	41	32
foul	0	0
total	182	162

Result

Final score

182 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable