Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.45 – 50.07

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 26.2 ±57.8

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.99Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9976Off-Season Demo Team 9976

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.8Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 30.22Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 16.8 ±57.6

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 16.8Event APEX 14.35Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.82Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.56Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9980, 9976, 9146

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9980, 9976, 9146

Auto

6.7 11%

Teleop

28.5 48%

Endgame

23.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5648, 9996, 9998

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5648, 9996, 9998

Auto

15.0 40%

Teleop

17.5 47%

Endgame

4.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score63pts

Blue projected score38.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.4
Score range: 31–89
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 103.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

26.2Season APEX16.8

6.7Auto15

28.5Teleop17.5

23.6Endgame4.6

0Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	11
teleop	34	14
endgame	33	15
foul	5	0
total	86	40

Result

Final score

86 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 12.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable