Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.56 – 129.34

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 84.8 ±42.2

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 96.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.54Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 36.06Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.8 ±42.9

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 157.8Event APEX 114.49Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.66Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 9.82Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10002, 9991, 9147

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9991, 9147

Auto

24.5 17%

Teleop

81.6 58%

Endgame

35.7 25%

Strengths

· 10002 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5584, 9995, 10437

/ 100 compat

Projected

135 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5584, 9995, 10437

Auto

27.8 20%

Teleop

74.2 54%

Endgame

36.2 26%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score141.6pts

Blue projected score135pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.2
Score range: 110–154
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 103.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

84.8Season APEX175.8

24.5Auto27.8

81.6Teleop74.2

35.7Endgame36.2

30Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	44
teleop	57	34
endgame	49	10
foul	15	5
total	149	93

Result

Final score

149 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable