Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.03 – 77.23

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

50 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 119.7 ±18.8

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 97.58Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 3.8Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX 19.8Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 36.5 ±43.5

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 19.64Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 50.32Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX 4.42Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10002, 10437, 11130

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.2 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 10437, 11130

Auto

24.4 20%

Teleop

67.4 56%

Endgame

28.3 24%

Strengths

· 10002 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7583, 9993, 7128

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7583, 9993, 7128

Auto

12.3 18%

Teleop

40.5 59%

Endgame

15.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.66 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score121.2pts

Blue projected score74.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.8
Score range: 59–141
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

119.7Season APEX36.5

24.4Auto12.3

67.4Teleop40.5

28.3Endgame15.7

39Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	13
teleop	22	10
endgame	4	3
foul	5	5
total	50	31

Result

Final score

50 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable