Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.51 – 65.23

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 3.3 ±57.8

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 104.07Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 28.18Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 3.3Event APEX 5.91Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 53 ±43.5

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 29Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.96Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX 19.57Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9986, 9992, 9189

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.2 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9986, 9992, 9189

Auto

21.9 17%

Teleop

66.9 53%

Endgame

38.0 30%

Strengths

· 9986 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9146, 9998, 11130

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9146, 9998, 11130

Auto

12.3 23%

Teleop

29.5 54%

Endgame

12.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.83 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score138.2pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.3
Score range: 46–152
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 103.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

3.3Season APEX53

21.9Auto12.3

66.9Teleop29.5

38Endgame12.7

11Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	12
teleop	104	38
endgame	34	23
foul	15	0
total	173	73

Result

Final score

173 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable