Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.65 – 87.87

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 86 ±42.7

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 68.66Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.77Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 23.77Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 9.4 ±57.6

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 9.4Event APEX 20.88Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.64Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 52.41Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6996, 9980, 7583

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6996, 9980, 7583

Auto

28.1 28%

Teleop

41.8 42%

Endgame

29.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5876, 9996, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 9996, 9993

Auto

15.7 20%

Teleop

41.1 52%

Endgame

22.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score107.2pts

Blue projected score82.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.8
Score range: 69–127
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

86Season APEX9.4

28.1Auto15.7

41.8Teleop41.1

29.7Endgame22.8

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	33
teleop	21	77
endgame	11	16
foul	35	0
total	75	126

Result

Final score

75 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable