Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75.34 – 62.51

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

77 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 6.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 16.9 ±43.2

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.11Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 35.66Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX 2.4Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 45 ±42.7

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.24Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 16.8Event APEX 14.11Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 28.2Event APEX 28.35Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 9147, 7128

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 9147, 7128

Auto

15.9 22%

Teleop

30.9 44%

Endgame

23.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9995, 5648, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9995, 5648, 10552

Auto

11.0 24%

Teleop

26.9 60%

Endgame

7.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score65.2pts

Blue projected score53.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.8
Score range: 44–94
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 104.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

16.9Season APEX45

15.9Auto11

30.9Teleop26.9

23.9Endgame7.3

22Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	24
teleop	35	13
endgame	21	14
foul	0	0
total	77	51

Result

Final score

77 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 6.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable