Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.74 – 62.39

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 28.2 ±57.4

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 95.87Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 3.15Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 28.2Event APEX 21.2Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 47.5 ±43.5

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 14.1Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 27.36Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.23Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9986, 9998, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.2 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9986, 9998, 10552

Auto

22.6 21%

Teleop

58.9 54%

Endgame

27.2 25%

Strengths

· 9986 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10437, 7583, 9996

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10437, 7583, 9996

Auto

19.5 37%

Teleop

18.2 34%

Endgame

15.5 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.72 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score120.2pts

Blue projected score52.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.4
Score range: 44–135
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 99.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

28.2Season APEX47.5

22.6Auto19.5

58.9Teleop18.2

27.2Endgame15.5

25Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	129	19
endgame	61	3
foul	0	0
total	201	38

Result

Final score

201 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable