Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.98 – 46.65

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 16.8 ±57.6

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 44.25Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 16.8Event APEX 10.52Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.05Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 29.5 ±43.5

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 3.3Event APEX 7.56Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 24.18Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.01Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9993, 5648, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 5648, 9992

Auto

16.7 26%

Teleop

32.1 51%

Endgame

14.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9189, 9146, 9991

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.8 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9189, 9146, 9991

Auto

8.9 31%

Teleop

11.7 41%

Endgame

8.0 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.64 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score80.8pts

Blue projected score32.8pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.3
Score range: 29–101
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 100.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

16.8Season APEX29.5

16.7Auto8.9

32.1Teleop11.7

14.7Endgame8

31Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	17
teleop	70	22
endgame	28	20
foul	0	5
total	106	64

Result

Final score

106 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable