Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.4 – 78.46

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 84.8 ±42.2

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 29.59Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 89.65Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 4.95Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 72.5 ±20.2

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 16.8Event APEX 18Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 29.81Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 28.25Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9147, 10002, 9998

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.2 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9147, 10002, 9998

Auto

16.8 13%

Teleop

83.1 65%

Endgame

28.7 22%

Strengths

· 10002 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5648, 9146, 7583

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5648, 9146, 7583

Auto

17.7 29%

Teleop

22.1 36%

Endgame

22.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.67 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score124.2pts

Blue projected score76.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 60–140
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 98.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

84.8Season APEX72.5

16.8Auto17.7

83.1Teleop22.1

28.7Endgame22.1

75Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	22
teleop	62	3
endgame	44	9
foul	10	15
total	151	49

Result

Final score

151 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable