Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.94 – 56.97

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 104.4 ±42.5

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 19.03Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 83.34Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 96.06Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 23.8 ±43.2

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.88Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX 3.43Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 16.8Event APEX 26.83Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7583, 10002, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7583, 10002, 9986

Auto

29.0 16%

Teleop

100.7 57%

Endgame

46.8 27%

Strengths

· 9986 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9980, 7128, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.1 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9980, 7128, 5648

Auto

8.9 18%

Teleop

26.5 53%

Endgame

14.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score198.4pts

Blue projected score49.1pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112
Score range: 40–186
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 94.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

104.4Season APEX23.8

29Auto8.9

100.7Teleop26.5

46.8Endgame14.8

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	16
teleop	158	9
endgame	74	10
foul	0	0
total	274	35

Result

Final score

274 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable