Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75.51 – 71.48

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 37.6 ±42.7

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.03Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 9.4Event APEX 26.56Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 28.2Event APEX 37.17Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 3.3 ±57.8

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 36.32Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.14Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 3.3Event APEX 21.53Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 5876, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 5876, 10552

Auto

20.0 30%

Teleop

34.8 52%

Endgame

12.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9993, 9998, 9189

/ 100 compat

Projected

65 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 9998, 9189

Auto

6.9 14%

Teleop

33.3 67%

Endgame

9.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score64.8pts

Blue projected score65pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4
Score range: 54–93
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

Combined score 76 vs event baseline 96.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

37.6Season APEX3.3

20Auto6.9

34.8Teleop33.3

12.6Endgame9.3

47Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	22
teleop	10	15
endgame	5	5
foul	0	0
total	34	42

Result

Final score

34 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable