Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.28 – 88.12

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 56.5 ±57.3

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.64Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 58.55Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 87.49Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 54.1 ±20.2

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 2.62Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 40.43Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 41.49Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9995, 6996, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.7 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9995, 6996, 9986

Auto

33.6 25%

Teleop

65.5 49%

Endgame

34.9 26%

Strengths

· 9986 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10437, 9147, 9146

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10437, 9147, 9146

Auto

12.4 13%

Teleop

44.2 47%

Endgame

37.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.78 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score156.7pts

Blue projected score84.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.2
Score range: 71–155
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 95.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

56.5Season APEX54.1

33.6Auto12.4

65.5Teleop44.2

34.9Endgame37

57Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	11
teleop	82	15
endgame	68	26
foul	20	0
total	199	52

Result

Final score

199 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable