Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.86 – 89.15

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.03Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.81Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 92.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 48.8 ±19.6

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 17.61Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 9.4Event APEX 26.89Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 40.63Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9980, 9991, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9980, 9991, 9986

Auto

11.2 9%

Teleop

73.8 61%

Endgame

35.8 30%

Strengths

· 9986 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7583, 5876, 9147

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7583, 5876, 9147

Auto

20.5 25%

Teleop

39.3 47%

Endgame

23.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score85.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.7
Score range: 71–138
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 97.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX48.8

11.2Auto20.5

73.8Teleop39.3

35.8Endgame23.6

43Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	22	17
endgame	22	29
foul	10	0
total	81	66

Result

Final score

81 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable