Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.32 – 81.39

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 84.7 ±42.2

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 28.2Event APEX 38.5Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.79Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 61.58Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 16.8 ±57.6

9976Off-Season Demo Team 9976

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.83Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 35.47Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 16.8Event APEX 23.63Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10552, 9998, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10552, 9998, 6996

Auto

19.1 20%

Teleop

49.2 50%

Endgame

29.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9976, 9993, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9976, 9993, 5648

Auto

9.5 14%

Teleop

39.3 58%

Endgame

18.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score110.9pts

Blue projected score73.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.9
Score range: 63–125
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 98.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

84.7Season APEX16.8

19.1Auto9.5

49.2Teleop39.3

29.6Endgame18.6

115Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	12
teleop	44	20
endgame	11	10
foul	5	30
total	88	72

Result

Final score

88 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable