Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.25 – 126.03

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.1 ±42.9

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -0.13Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 3.3Event APEX 10.37Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 157.8Event APEX 82.25Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 101.1 ±42.5

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 45.29Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.19Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 81.2Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9996, 9189, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.5 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9996, 9189, 5584

Auto

28.2 31%

Teleop

51.1 56%

Endgame

12.7 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9146, 9995, 10002

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9146, 9995, 10002

Auto

22.7 18%

Teleop

77.1 62%

Endgame

25.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score92.5pts

Blue projected score139.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.8
Score range: 76–143
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 95.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.1Season APEX101.1

28.2Auto22.7

51.1Teleop77.1

12.7Endgame25.5

131Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	13
teleop	113	71
endgame	32	46
foul	0	0
total	177	130

Result

Final score

177 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 43.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable