Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.96 – 81.73

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 54.4 ±42.9

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 32.61Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 28.2Event APEX 28.73Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.88Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 36.7 ±43.2

9976Off-Season Demo Team 9976

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.77Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 31.52Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 26.8Event APEX 19.8Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9146, 10552, 9996

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.2 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9146, 10552, 9996

Auto

22.1 30%

Teleop

30.9 42%

Endgame

20.6 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9976, 9147, 11130

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9976, 9147, 11130

Auto

14.3 19%

Teleop

44.8 58%

Endgame

18.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score76.2pts

Blue projected score76.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.8
Score range: 63–100
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

54.4Season APEX36.7

22.1Auto14.3

30.9Teleop44.8

20.6Endgame18

16Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	8
teleop	9	34
endgame	14	23
foul	0	0
total	42	65

Result

Final score

42 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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