Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.32 – 76.2

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186 ±42.4

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 157.8Event APEX 79.63Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 28.2Event APEX 29.18Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.66Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 44.2 ±19.6

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 9.4Event APEX 34.45Rank 19Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 16.8Event APEX 30.61Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 4.02Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5584, 10552, 9980

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5584, 10552, 9980

Auto

19.5 15%

Teleop

76.8 57%

Endgame

37.3 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5876, 5648, 10437

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 5648, 10437

Auto

17.0 24%

Teleop

31.7 44%

Endgame

23.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.77 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score127.5pts

Blue projected score69.1pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.1
Score range: 60–133
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 89.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186Season APEX44.2

19.5Auto17

76.8Teleop31.7

37.3Endgame23

80Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	16
teleop	134	8
endgame	50	14
foul	0	15
total	215	53

Result

Final score

215 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable