Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.67 – 62.21

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 10.3 ±43.5

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 3.3Event APEX 1.76Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 45.09Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX -12.7Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 9.9 ±57.6

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.26Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 36.19Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.05Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9189, 9993, 7128

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9189, 9993, 7128

Auto

8.2 38%

Teleop

25.4 100%

Endgame

-11.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9995, 9147, 9996

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9995, 9147, 9996

Auto

10.9 25%

Teleop

19.8 45%

Endgame

13.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score34.2pts

Blue projected score46.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.5
Score range: 36–78
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Upset

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 89.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

10.3Season APEX9.9

8.2Auto10.9

25.4Teleop19.8

-11.8Endgame13.5

25Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	23
teleop	31	53
endgame	33	5
foul	0	5
total	73	86

Result

Final score

73 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable