Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.31 – 137.93

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 32.8 ±43.5

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.31Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 19.85Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 3.3Event APEX 17.87Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.5 ±18.5

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 9.9Event APEX 49.99Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 157.8Event APEX 87.99Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 16.8Event APEX 35.51Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9998, 7583, 9189

/ 100 compat

Projected

39 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9998, 7583, 9189

Auto

10.2 41%

Teleop

7.9 32%

Endgame

6.6 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9147, 5584, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.5 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9147, 5584, 5648

Auto

24.9 14%

Teleop

107.5 59%

Endgame

49.8 27%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score39pts

Blue projected score173.5pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.6
Score range: 38–153
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 85.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

32.8Season APEX184.5

10.2Auto24.9

7.9Teleop107.5

6.6Endgame49.8

77Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	35
teleop	18	87
endgame	7	31
foul	15	0
total	50	153

Result

Final score

50 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable