Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.09 – 90.34

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 35.2 ±42.9

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 28.2Event APEX 24.67Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX -9.57Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 35.45Rank 12Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 74.9 ±57.1

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 62.71Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.58Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.15Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10552, 7128, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10552, 7128, 9993

Auto

17.0 42%

Teleop

20.4 51%

Endgame

2.8 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10002, 9992, 9980

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9992, 9980

Auto

13.2 15%

Teleop

53.9 59%

Endgame

23.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score50.6pts

Blue projected score89.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.2
Score range: 49–105
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 85.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

35.2Season APEX74.9

17Auto13.2

20.4Teleop53.9

2.8Endgame23.8

0Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	21
teleop	60	85
endgame	10	38
foul	0	0
total	74	144

Result

Final score

74 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable