Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.3 – 110.79

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 57.7 ±42.9

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 28.2Event APEX 29.94Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 18.82Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.5 ±18

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 157.8Event APEX 88.47Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 32.7Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 12.7Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10552, 9992, 7583

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.2 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10552, 9992, 7583

Auto

19.3 34%

Teleop

20.3 36%

Endgame

17.3 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5584, 6996, 9146

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5584, 6996, 9146

Auto

29.5 23%

Teleop

76.1 59%

Endgame

24.2 19%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.84 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score56.2pts

Blue projected score133.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.5
Score range: 56–126
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 85.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

57.7Season APEX240.5

19.3Auto29.5

20.3Teleop76.1

17.3Endgame24.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	33
teleop	27	84
endgame	15	57
foul	15	0
total	75	174

Result

Final score

75 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable