Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.26 – 83.38

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.8 ±42.9

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 7Event APEX 4.42Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 106.23Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 157.8Event APEX 103.18Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 76.6 ±18.6

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 57.91Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 3.3Event APEX 11.57Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 16.8Event APEX 22.22Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7128, 9986, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.8 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7128, 9986, 5584

Auto

34.6 16%

Teleop

122.1 57%

Endgame

55.9 26%

Strengths

· 9986 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6996, 9189, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.7 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6996, 9189, 5648

Auto

28.7 37%

Teleop

29.8 38%

Endgame

20.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score213.8pts

Blue projected score91.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.9
Score range: 65–224
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-25
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 102.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.8Season APEX76.6

34.6Auto28.7

122.1Teleop29.8

55.9Endgame20.1

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	23
teleop	99	42
endgame	17	14
foul	0	15
total	158	94

Result

Final score

158 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

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