Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.41 – 192.92

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 32.1 ±57.6

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 26.89Rank 4Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 103.13Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 6.39Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.5 ±42.2

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 8.16Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 114.97Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 69.79Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9147, 9986, 9998

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9147, 9986, 9998

Auto

20.5 15%

Teleop

69.9 53%

Endgame

42.2 32%

Strengths

· 9986 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9991, 5584, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.9 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 5584, 6996

Auto

44.1 24%

Teleop

96.5 52%

Endgame

46.7 25%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score136.4pts

Blue projected score192.9pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample118alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.5
Score range: 118–211
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 101.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

32.1Season APEX278.5

20.5Auto44.1

69.9Teleop96.5

42.2Endgame46.7

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	36
teleop	81	69
endgame	60	3
foul	15	0
total	176	108

Result

Final score

176 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 62.3 pts