Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.17 – 128.5

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 579.2 ±10.7

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 23Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 61.88Rank 11Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 89.29Rank 7Record 14-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.2 ±12.7

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 40.28Rank 28Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 41.24Rank 23Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 46.98Rank 19Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2614, 5338, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.2 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2614, 5338, 48

Auto

28.3 17%

Teleop

95.7 57%

Endgame

43.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1466, 5811, 6239

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1466, 5811, 6239

Auto

35.7 31%

Teleop

58.0 50%

Endgame

21.4 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score174.2pts

Blue projected score128.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 82%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.7
Score range: 88–215
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 225.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

579.2Season APEX378.2

28.3Auto35.7

95.7Teleop58

43.9Endgame21.4

21Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	24
teleop	132	9
endgame	65	8
foul	0	0
total	241	41

Result

Final score

241 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable