Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.3 – 134.94

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.8 ±12.4

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 34.82Rank 21Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 57.3Rank 20Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 56.18Rank 17Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.9 ±11.2

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX -0.99Rank 27Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 104.69Rank 10Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 31.24Rank 13Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1086, 1262, 4265

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.3 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1086, 1262, 4265

Auto

40.0 27%

Teleop

71.6 49%

Endgame

34.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 620, 346, 10011

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.9 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 620, 346, 10011

Auto

25.7 18%

Teleop

73.6 51%

Endgame

46.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score148.3pts

Blue projected score134.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 83%, blue 85%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.4
Score range: 95–188
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 224.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.8Season APEX517.9

40Auto25.7

71.6Teleop73.6

34Endgame46.2

12Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	16
teleop	150	92
endgame	46	54
foul	0	0
total	230	162

Result

Final score

230 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable