Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.42 – 185.97

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603 ±11.9

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 95.87Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 60.19Rank 11Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 3.36Rank 29Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.1 ±13.9

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 41.26Rank 28Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 46.65Rank 19Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 98.06Rank 12Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 117, 5338, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.4 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 117, 5338, 3260

Auto

34.9 23%

Teleop

89.2 58%

Endgame

29.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1466, 6239, 4467

/ 100 compat

Projected

186 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1466, 6239, 4467

Auto

43.3 25%

Teleop

93.2 53%

Endgame

40.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.78 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score159.4pts

Blue projected score186pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 82%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.6
Score range: 119–226
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 224.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603Season APEX393.1

34.9Auto43.3

89.2Teleop93.2

29.7Endgame40

50Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	30
teleop	100	104
endgame	55	47
foul	5	30
total	220	211

Result

Final score

220 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable