Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.74 – 184.38

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423 ±10.7

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 8.19Rank 30Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 20.03Rank 24Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 180.52Rank 2Record 20-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 529.3 ±10.5

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 31.02Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 162.65Rank 4Record 18-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX -9.29Rank 25Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1111, 9121, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.7 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1111, 9121, 1325

Auto

33.0 16%

Teleop

117.0 56%

Endgame

60.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 611, 195, 3492

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.4 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 611, 195, 3492

Auto

38.6 22%

Teleop

89.8 51%

Endgame

47.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score208.7pts

Blue projected score184.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 81%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.4
Score range: 144–249
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 223.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423Season APEX529.3

33Auto38.6

117Teleop89.8

60.7Endgame47.2

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	50
teleop	162	42
endgame	80	96
foul	0	0
total	308	188

Result

Final score

308 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable