Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.97 – 76.32

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 319

Prediction missed · off by 181.8 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.9 ±12.2

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 84.29Rank 15Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 71.25Rank 25Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 3.43Rank 30Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.1 ±10.7

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 49.7Rank 5Record 15-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 3.43Rank 28Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 23.19Rank 7Record 14-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5740, 3492, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

159 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5740, 3492, 1111

Auto

13.7 10%

Teleop

78.9 55%

Endgame

51.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2539, 1466, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2539, 1466, 48

Auto

15.1 18%

Teleop

59.3 70%

Endgame

10.0 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score159pts

Blue projected score76.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 89%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.7
Score range: 39–196
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 207.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.9Season APEX654.1

13.7Auto15.1

78.9Teleop59.3

51Endgame10

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	90
teleop	2	136
endgame	11	93
foul	15	0
total	38	319

Result

Final score

38 – 319

Prediction missed · off by 181.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable