Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

188.15 – 289.92

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

197 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 58.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527 ±13.5

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 53.47Rank 17Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 92

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 94.19Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 40.49Rank 15Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.5 ±11.4

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 267.57Rank 1Record 22-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 24.01Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -1.66Rank 30Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4265, 117, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.2 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4265, 117, 5740

Auto

60.5 32%

Teleop

85.8 46%

Endgame

40.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 27, 2614, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.9 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 27, 2614, 1111

Auto

48.6 17%

Teleop

160.6 57%

Endgame

71.9 26%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.44 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score188.2pts

Blue projected score289.9pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 84%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.8
Score range: 148–330
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 595 vs event baseline 221.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527Season APEX585.5

60.5Auto48.6

85.8Teleop160.6

40.2Endgame71.9

9Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	68
teleop	68	220
endgame	59	110
foul	25	0
total	197	398

Result

Final score

197 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 58.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable