Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.09 – 182.66

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.9 ±15

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 45.43Rank 28Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 53.75Rank 17Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 2.91Rank 29Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.9 ±11

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 59.9Rank 20Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 92.31Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 30.45Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1466, 4265, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1466, 4265, 3260

Auto

27.4 28%

Teleop

45.7 46%

Endgame

26.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1262, 117, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1262, 117, 611

Auto

45.1 26%

Teleop

92.6 53%

Endgame

35.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.44 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score102.1pts

Blue projected score182.7pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 84%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.6
Score range: 62–223
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 223.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.9Season APEX429.9

27.4Auto45.1

45.7Teleop92.6

26.1Endgame35.5

24Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	58
teleop	66	87
endgame	14	65
foul	0	5
total	102	215

Result

Final score

102 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable