Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.82 – 153.51

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 240

Prediction missed · off by 65.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.6 ±11.6

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 110.86Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 68.31Rank 20Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 20.65Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447.8 ±12.2

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX -16.21Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 58.86Rank 19Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 97

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 110.86Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8728, 1262, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.8 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8728, 1262, 611

Auto

33.9 18%

Teleop

112.4 60%

Endgame

39.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2614, 6239, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2614, 6239, 117

Auto

48.9 32%

Teleop

91.3 60%

Endgame

12.5 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score199.8pts

Blue projected score153.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 84%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.3
Score range: 116–238
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 208.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.6Season APEX447.8

33.9Auto48.9

112.4Teleop91.3

39.9Endgame12.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	43
teleop	104	116
endgame	28	21
foul	0	60
total	156	240

Result

Final score

156 – 240

Prediction missed · off by 65.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable