Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.02 – 273.77

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.5 ±9.9

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 209.54Rank 3Record 19-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 49.75Rank 14Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 35.73Rank 23Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.9 ±9.3

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 91.81Rank 7Record 14-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 28.37Rank 21Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 153.59Rank 4Record 18-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 1533, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

295 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10021, 1533, 5811

Auto

55.5 18%

Teleop

181.2 59%

Endgame

70.2 23%

Strengths

· 10021 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 85%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 48, 1086, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 48, 1086, 195

Auto

54.1 20%

Teleop

148.3 55%

Endgame

67.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 85%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score295pts

Blue projected score273.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 85%, blue 91%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.3
Score range: 234–335
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 584 vs event baseline 222.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.5Season APEX654.9

55.5Auto54.1

181.2Teleop148.3

70.2Endgame67.8

35Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	70
teleop	226	123
endgame	26	42
foul	20	0
total	349	235

Result

Final score

349 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable