Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.83 – 72.4

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 129.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.6 ±14.5

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 45.12Rank 15Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 75.11Rank 26Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 32.6Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.1 ±11.2

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 52.87Rank 11Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 20.59Rank 13Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX -1.06Rank 25Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5740, 7515, 2614

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5740, 7515, 2614

Auto

58.5 41%

Teleop

54.9 38%

Endgame

30.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 10011, 3492

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5338, 10011, 3492

Auto

11.1 16%

Teleop

27.9 41%

Endgame

29.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score152.8pts

Blue projected score72.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.4
Score range: 32–193
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 223.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.6Season APEX568.1

58.5Auto11.1

54.9Teleop27.9

30Endgame29

24Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	42
teleop	7	94
endgame	0	56
foul	0	0
total	14	192

Result

Final score

14 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 129.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable