Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321.62 – 285.13

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

367 – 454

Prediction missed · off by 107.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.3 ±11.9

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 56.83Rank 20Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 196.16Rank 3Record 19-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 68.63Rank 26Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 618.6 ±9.9

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 164.23Rank 5Record 15-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 100.36Rank 10Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 20.54Rank 24Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1262, 10021, 7515

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.6 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1262, 10021, 7515

Auto

67.1 21%

Teleop

185.7 57%

Endgame

72.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 85%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2539, 346, 9121

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.1 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2539, 346, 9121

Auto

56.7 19%

Teleop

177.6 61%

Endgame

57.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 85%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score321.6pts

Blue projected score285.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 85%, blue 86%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.5
Score range: 245–362
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 821 vs event baseline 220.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.3Season APEX618.6

67.1Auto56.7

185.7Teleop177.6

72.3Endgame57.4

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	89
teleop	181	189
endgame	67	166
foul	5	10
total	367	454

Result

Final score

367 – 454

Prediction missed · off by 107.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable