Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

408.18 – 181.84

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 142.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 656.7 ±9.5

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 44.55Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 75.99Rank 22Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 287.64Rank 1Record 22-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.8 ±11.7

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -6.4Rank 30Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 31.05Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 157.19Rank 4Record 18-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 611, 1629, 27

/ 100 compat

Projected

408.2 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 611, 1629, 27

Auto

47.4 12%

Teleop

231.1 58%

Endgame

119.5 30%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1111, 2614, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.8 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1111, 2614, 195

Auto

44.8 26%

Teleop

91.6 52%

Endgame

38.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.84 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score408.2pts

Blue projected score181.8pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 83%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.3
Score range: 142–448
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 222.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

656.7Season APEX490.8

47.4Auto44.8

231.1Teleop91.6

119.5Endgame38.4

7Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	58
teleop	24	106
endgame	74	43
foul	0	35
total	184	242

Result

Final score

184 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 142.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable